Bad science: The Journey bug10: 27 13/03/2010, Ben Goldacre, business, commentary, media, initial science, Rentokil, the tutor, news, UK Guardian Unli

Bad science: The Journey bug10: 27 13/03/2010, Ben Goldacre, business, commentary, media, initial science, Rentokil, the tutor, news, UK Guardian Unlimited

The number of errors in the compartments of trains to sound a little higher. Where do they come?

The figures were very specific, very alarming. "Two thousand errors for a walk in each train compartment," the Daily Mail group cockroaches in trains, "he complained to the Telegraph." The share of passenger trains with 1,000 cockroaches, bed bugs 200 and 200 inches, "said the Evening Standard.

These numbers all sounds a bit over the top. Where do they come? "The staff of Rentokil spraying of insecticides in the cars of a train and a bus and then counted the bodies of insects," said Norma. The newspaper quoted a spokesman for Rentokil, "The bus was studied within the M25."

But the London Transport says he has not had contact with Rentokil, and that no such study has been done on their vehicles. Rentokil asked for more details.

After the insistence of some, his public relations company, Brands2Life explained, there are no buses or trains were studied.

How do you get the other end of the stick? I have no way of knowing, as Rentokil Brands2Life and both refused to show what I had sent to reporters, but in any event, contrary to what was said earlier, these numbers do not come from measurements and counting - are based on " the theoretical model.

The models are useful. Are a simulation of reality, based on a series of assumptions. Rentokil model for the number of failures on trains and buses in some of the interesting hypothesis, and will have its own opinion on whether to make a reasonable approximation of the real world.

It is assumed, for example, that the wagon train or bus is kept in isolation. She assumed this transport has kindly provided an abundant food supply. It is assumed that the ratio of men to women was best for raising errors.

It is assumed (surprising for those involved in the formation of the population - to everyone's surprise, in fact) that the insect population would be totally out of control, no factors outside the control of mortality.

It is assumed that the siding or garage was controlled at a constant temperature all day and night, without extremes. It is assumed that passengers are not trampled, or strong cleaners, nothing. In fact, it is assumed that no cleaning, always, and passengers, never. This was his model of insect populations in passenger vehicles.

You'll have your own opinion about whether one could trust an organization of its kind in the estimate of the average population of insects. Rentokil But somehow inappropriate, a company with £ 2.36bn in revenue and a 54% increase in profits in 2009 to £ 166m, and is willing to pay 90 million pounds in bonuses to its top three executives, feels fear need to make all public transport in a smart public relations. There is also a business idea that will make ugly if Rentokil can make everyone afraid of insects on the bus.

And on March 2, the day before the release of cockroaches, Rentokil announced the largest contract ever in the history of your business: 200 pounds over five years with the London Underground.

Rentokil Initial
Ben Goldacre


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