Bad science: The Journey bug10: 27 13/03/2010, Ben Goldacre, business, commentary, media, initial science, Rentokil, the tutor, news, UK Guardian Unli

Bad science: The Journey bug10: 27 13/03/2010, Ben Goldacre, business, commentary, media, initial science, Rentokil, the tutor, news, UK Guardian Unlimited

The numbers of errors in compartments of trains sound a little on top. Where do they come?

The figures were very specific, very alarming. "Two thousand errors to take a ride on each train compartment," said the Daily Mail "Cockroaches cluster on trains," he complained to the Telegraph. "The train passengers share with 1,000 cockroaches, bed bugs 200 and 200 inches," said the Evening Standard.

These numbers all sound a bit on top. Where do they come? "The staff of Rentokil insecticide spraying in the cars of a train and a bus and then counted the bodies of insects," said Norma. The newspaper quoted a spokesman for Rentokil, "The bus was studied within the M25."

But the London Transport says he has not had contact with Rentokil, and that no such study has been done on their vehicles. Rentokil asked for more details.

After some insistence, his public relations company, Brands2Life explained, there are no buses or trains were studied.

How do people get the other end of the stick? I have no way of knowing, as Rentokil Brands2Life and both refused to show him that I had sent to reporters, but in any event, contrary to what was said earlier, these numbers do not come from measurements and counting - are based on a "The theoretical model.

The models are useful. Are a simulation of reality, based on a series of assumptions. Rentokil model for the number of failures on trains and buses in some of the interesting hypothesis, and you will have your own opinion on whether to make a reasonable approximation of the real world.

It is assumed, for example, that the wagon train or bus remained in isolation. She assumed this transport has kindly provided an abundant food supply. It is assumed that the ratio of men to women was perfectly optimal errors for breeding.

It is assumed (surprising for those involved in modeling populations - surprisingly to all, in fact) that the insect population would be totally out of control, no factors outside the control of mortality.

It is assumed that the siding or garage was controlled at a constant temperature all day and night, without extremes. It is assumed that passengers were not trampling, cruel vacuums no, nothing. In fact, it is assumed that there was no cleaning, always, and passengers, never. This was his model of insect populations in passenger vehicles.

You'll have your own opinion about whether one could trust an organization that takes such as these in the estimation of the average population of insects. But somehow unseemly Rentokil, a company with £ 2.36bn in revenue and a 54% increase in profits in 2009 to £ 166m, and ready to pay £ 90 million in bonuses to its top three executives, one feels the need fear of making all public transport in a fancy public relations. There is also the idea of Rentokil business that will make it ugly if you can make everyone afraid of insects on the bus.

And on March 2, the day before the release of cockroaches, Rentokil announced the largest ever single contract in the history of your business: 200 pounds over five years with the London Underground.

Rentokil Initial
Ben Goldacre


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